The Inevitability of a Spanish Property Crash 0
Despite the efforts of the financial stability of the European Union, it was clear that even before the ink had dried on the rescue Irish agree that the infection could be contained. Immediately started looking nervous investors to other countries in the euro area, such as Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Spain in particular, fear of the same problems that Ireland dragged to reappear elsewhere. After all, is the inability of the state to borrow (and Ireland is well funded in 2011), but the inability of Irish banks to refinance their loans in the wholesale markets that triggered the bail.
But the banks of Spain could face a similar problem? Today, Spain’s answer seems to be optimistic about the economy minister, Elena Salgado, told CNN that the euro zone’s fourth largest economy has “absolutely no need” for a rescue operation Irish style. It was followed by a very courageous statement that speculators short paris Snr Zapatero against Spain would “lose his shirt” and that the government has already done enough to avoid a debt crisis.
While this may seem like an admirable attempt to reassure and reassure the markets do not take into account the special circumstances that explain the current situation. Barclays Capital estimates that combined, the Spanish monarch and Spanish banks need to raise € 73bn in the first four months of 2011, about half of it in April 2011 only.
These numbers alone do not seem to point to the rescue of the territory, but if we take into account that the Spanish bond yields are at their highest level in 8 years, it is clear that more than words are needed to attract investors. The rate of increase in yields of 4% to 5.2% in one month is a radical change for the bond markets, which usually travel in small doses. This means that the bonds of Spain plunge in the value and the owners are worried that dumping will not be any money.
So what is scaring investors? The country has made great efforts to reduce central government spending and national debt this year will be 60% of GDP – is not great, but not as bad as about 100% in Ireland. But as Victor Mallet points in the Financial Times that there is a lack of clarity on the number, despite the “strict limitations” of the debt of the 17 regions (104.8 million) represent more than half of the public sector deficit, which makes it much harder for the central government to impose reforms. “Sovereign Risk Spanish is growing at sub-national,” says Nicholas Spiro Spiro Sovereign Strategy and several regions like Catalonia and Madrid have financial difficulties that recovery seems unlikely given the economic stagnation and slowdown growth forecasts Spain.
It is also in regions where the problems lie in the banking system. Spain has experienced a major housing bubble, accompanied by a huge increase in private sector debt and entered into recession when the bubble burst. But while big national banks like Santander are well capitalized (and even the possibility of acquiring foreign companies with problems) in the regions of boxes (regional savings banks) have accumulated significant exposure to construction and development. When the two large banks (BBVA and Santander) reduce 2006-07, banks have continued to provide more intensively, taking advantage of wholesale debt markets for funding. This alone makes them a higher risk. However, economies also provided half of the € 318 000 000 000 provided by developers in Spain. These loans now represent about one fifth of the fund assets, “said Santiago Lopez Diaz, an analyst at Credit Suisse. They deteriorate rapidly. Read the rest of this entry →